Still gonna use AP Poll rankings since I don't really have the time to wait for the College Football Playoff rankings to come out on Tuesday night and to do this in just two days since I have other work I need to take care of as well. I went 23-10 this past week, including being happy to be wrong about the Auburn/Ole Miss game! I am now 233-83 picking games this year. Let's see what we do this week about that record.
Tennessee-Martin at #1 Mississippi State
Survive and advance was the name of the game for Mississippi State on Saturday against Arkansas. Despite losing the time of possession battle by over 17 minutes as well as the turnover battle 3 to 1, the Bulldogs got a 69 yard TD pass from Dak Prescott to Fred Ross early in the 4th quarter to make the difference in a 17-10 victory. They shouldn't have such difficulty this week against what should be an extremely overmatched Skyhawks team. The Ohio Valley Conference participants will get blown away early and then Mississippi State will turn their attention to Alabama.
My Call: Mississippi State 55, Tennessee-Martin 7
Virginia at #2 Florida State
2014 actually got off to a solid enough start for Virginia, but three straight conference losses and a trip to Tallahassee on the horizon to face the defending national champs have them reeling. As for the Noles, they fell behind 21-0 on Thursday night in Louisville, but kept their composure and rallied for a 42-31 victory on the road. Perhaps if this game were earlier in the season, I'd think the Cavaliers would have a shot of at least keeping this one respectable. Now though, they've even been struggling defensively the last two games. FSU should win comfortably.
My Call: Florida State 34, Virginia 13
#4 Alabama at #14 LSU
Night game in Baton Rouge as LSU will attempt to help spoil the championship hopes of Alabama, after doing just that a couple weeks ago at home against then third ranked Ole Miss. Both these teams should be rested and ready to go for this one as they sat around this past Saturday watching the rest of college football. The homefield advantage certainly helps the Tigers, no doubt about it, but my reasons for taking the Tide in a very close game here are experience and Nick Saban. Although I'm not knocking Les Miles, I simply would take Saban over him when it comes to having a couple weeks to come up with a better plan to win a game.
My Call: Alabama 21, LSU 17
#5 Oregon at #20 Utah
Really wish I had the faith in Utah to win this game. Living in Arizona, I have seen so many new Oregon "fans" just pop up out of nowhere the last few years. Now that I've gotten this prejudice out of the way, I am picking the Ducks. The Utes are one of the few teams who could have the defense to at least put up a respectable fight against that Oregon offense, but they won't fully stop them and I don't think there's enough offense here to pull the upset.
My Call: Oregon 34, Utah 24
#9 Kansas State at #6 TCU
Could be another elimination game as far as the college football playoff is concerned. Both the Frogs and Wildcats enter this one with just one loss apiece; and both may feel like they shouldn't have that one loss (TCU especially). TCU did not play that well on the road against West Virginia, but they did what you have to do since teams are never gonna run through a full season's worth of games without at least one or two games where they have to grind it out. Meantime, Kansas State has been on point since their only loss in mid-September to Auburn. This is the start to an unbelievably tough end to the season for K-State. After this game, they still have road games against West Virginia and Baylor on tap (although Kansas at home should be easy). I'm gonna take the Horned Frogs. I don't think Trevone Boykin has two bad games in a row. It'll be close, though. Instant classic.
My Call: TCU 38, Kansas State 35
#13 Ohio State at #7 Michigan State
Revenge could be a factor for Ohio State in this tussle in East Lansing. Remember, the Buckeyes would have gone on to play Florida State for the national title last season had they won the Big 10 Championship Game, but the Spartans had other ideas, outscoring Ohio State 14-0 in the 4th quarter of that game. As a result, Auburn went to the title game instead. Like TCU and Kansas State, both these teams are also entering this game with just one loss apiece. Michigan State lost on the road to Oregon early in the year; unable to hold a second half lead while Ohio State had what looks like a bad home loss to Virginia Tech. But unlike a year ago, these two teams won't be playing in a conference championship game as both are in the Big 10's Eastern division. The winner of this game will very likely win the East. I like MSU's defense to come up big late to thwart Ohio State's plans at revenge. Connor Cook also outplays J.T. Barrett.
My Call: Michigan State 31, Ohio State 27
#8 Notre Dame at #11 Arizona State
My guess is most people will pick Notre Dame to win given that they very nearly beat Florida State on the road. They may be right, but here's my reason for picking Arizona State. The Sun Devils have actually beaten quality opponents this year such as Utah and USC. Notre Dame's best win? At home over what is an average Stanford team at the last minute; that same Stanford team ASU handled rather easily. Plus that Sun Devil defense has very much improved since the beginning of the season when they were admittedly looking shaky. This will be close, but those close wins over quality teams will serve them well, giving them the confidence needed late to come out with the win here.
My Call: Arizona State 24, Notre Dame 23
#10 Baylor at #16 Oklahoma
Simple... I'm only taking the Sooners because this game is in Norman. If it were in Waco or even on a neutral site, I'd be going with the Bears all the way. I just don't fully trust Baylor, Bryce Petty and their mediocre defense on the road against a still solid, albeit somewhat disappointing OU team. Yes, while the defensive numbers for Baylor may look solid, keep in mind that by far the two best teams they've faced offensively in West Virginia and TCU scored a combined 99 points against them (TCU had 58, West Virginia 41). The rest of their schedule has been against the likes of SMU, Northwestern State, Iowa State, Buffalo, Texas and Kansas. Bad, right?
My Call: Oklahoma 33, Baylor 30
Presbyterian at #12 Ole Miss
There can't be many ways to suffer a more heartbreaking defeat like Ole Miss did on Saturday against Auburn. Twice in the last six and a half minutes, they were deep in Auburn territory only to fumble it away. The last fumble literally added insult to injury as star WR Laquon Treadwell suffered a broken leg and dislocated ankle all while fumbling the ball on the half yard line while it was recovered in the end zone by Auburn. That means this is a prime opportunity for a major letdown. Good news for the Rebels though is Presbyterian is not the team that will be able to beat them while they're down. It may take a quarter for Ole Miss to get emotionally charged up, but it'll happen and they'll house the Blue Hose once that happens.
My Call: Ole Miss 44, Presbyterian 3
#17 Georgia at Kentucky
While you can never discount the 'anything goes' philosophy in rivalry games, who honestly out there thought Georgia would get taken behind the woodshed by a Florida team that had shown nothing like they showed against the Bulldogs? If you did, you're smarter than me because I sure didn't. Funnily enough, I actually thought this one might be the trap game sandwiched between the Florida game, and of course, Georgia's home date with rival Auburn next weekend. Even with the poor performance against the Gators and the possibility of yet another look ahead here, I'll take Georgia. I can't imagine they'll play so poorly two weeks straight. Although I'm also guessing Kentucky will manage to keep this a game into the 4th quarter.
My Call: Georgia 35, Kentucky 24
#18 UCLA at Washington
Upset! UCLA has looked downright bad their last two games on the road against worse opponents than Washington; holding on to beat Cal by just two and needing double overtime to escape Colorado in Boulder. No escape this time. The Huskies will use their defense to force Bruins QB Brett Hundley into mistakes and although the offense won't put together a masterpiece, they'll do just enough to take advantage of the opportunity handed to them.
My Call: Washington 27, UCLA 21
#19 Clemson at Wake Forest
Sorry, but no such upset will be taking place here. Although Clemson senior QB Cole Staudt isn't very good, I can't imagine they'll need him to be in this one. Yes, it's possible true freshman Deshaun Watson could recover in time, but his status is doubtful right now, so I'm gonna assume they hold him out at least another week. Wake Forest has a hapless offense that won't do anything and although the defense could perform respectably, it's not gonna be enough. Clemson has other ways they can score on offense, the Demon Deacons have essentially no ways to score offensively.
My Call: Clemson 24, Wake Forest 7
Colorado at #21 Arizona
Two and a half minutes into their game with UCLA on the road, Arizona scored a touchdown, and what turned out to be their only points of the night in a 17-7 loss to the Bruins. That loss put them behind now Pac 12 South leader Arizona State in the standings. The Wildcat offense will get back on track against what is a God awful Colorado defense which ranks 118th in the FBS in terms of yards allowed per game. The Buffaloes may have a decent day passing the ball since they'll be playing from pretty far behind, but it won't be nearly enough.
My Call: Arizona 48, Colorado 21
#22 Duke at Syracuse
Pittsburgh/Duke games are turning into must see television. Last year, Pittsburgh won 58-55. This past Saturday, Duke won 48-45 in double overtime. The Blue Devils shouldn't need such excitement to win in the Carrier Dome against the Orange. Their defense gets back on track and although the offense may not light it up, they'll do plenty and win by a couple scores. Duke stays on track to stay in command of the ACC Coastal division and set up another conference title game with Florida State. What a job by Duke head coach David Cutcliffe, BTW. He should be garnering some consideration for coach of the year winning as big as he is with this club.
My Call: Duke 28, Syracuse 14
#23 Marshall at Southern Miss
More Conference USA action means more of the same for Rakeem Cato and the Thundering Herd. Big points on the scoreboard and another win. Even Brett Favre coming out of retirement and regaining some college eligibility wouldn't be enough for Southern Miss here.
My Call: Marshall 41, Southern Miss 20
#24 West Virginia at Texas
The Mountaineers were their own worst enemy in that 31-30 home loss to TCU this past Saturday. Although they held the lead for most of the game, five turnovers ultimately spelled doom. Does that make them vulnerable for this coming game? Yes, but I don't think Texas has the offense to take advantage of this opportunity. Their defense will show up and play respectably, but the offense will once again be their downfall and West Virginia gets a bounce back victory in Austin.
My Call: West Virginia 26, Texas 14
#25 Wisconsin at Purdue
Instead of going through a lengthy analysis here, I'll just make it very simple. Wisconsin has Melvin Gordon, Purdue does not possess any such weapon offensively who comes close to being that great and their defense has no chance of slowing him down. Bucky Badger triumphs.
My Call: Wisconsin 35, Purdue 14
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